AMBA Monday Morning News - Week of March 9, 2026 
Message from the Board
Fellow Alaska mortgage banking professionals,
Good morning, Alaska mortgage professionals.
Spring doesn't always arrive on schedule here. Some mornings the forecast looks one way, and by noon everything has shifted. This week in our industry felt a little like that. Rates touched a threshold we haven't seen in three and a half years, then oil markets moved and the picture changed within days.
That kind of week can feel disorienting. But I'd encourage you to look at the longer arc. The work you do for borrowers is not about any single week's rate movement. It's about relationship, trust, and knowing your market well enough to guide someone through uncertainty, whatever that uncertainty looks like on any given Monday.
You are the steady hand for your clients when the headlines get loud. That steadiness matters more than people say out loud.
As Theodore Roosevelt put it: "Do what you can, with what you have, where you are."
Here is to another successful week, whatever that may look like for you.
Benjamin Reynolds - AMBA President
Thank you to the sponsor of our Monday Morning News
Next Luncheon!
Register Today - MarcH 18th Assembly Candidate Meet and Greet
March 18th marks one of AMBA's biggest events in our history. As of today, 15 of the 16 current Anchorage Assembly candidates have committed to joining us for a meet and greet, bringing the mortgage, real estate, and housing community face to face with the people running for office. Come have real conversations and make an informed decision before election day on April 7th.
This year's election is mail-in ballot only, and those ballots start hitting mailboxes on March 17th. That makes this event extremely timely. You'll have candidates in the room one day before your ballot arrives.
All of us have a heart for this city and want the best for the housing, finance, and business communities. We do this job every day, watching people struggle to get into homes, fight against affordability challenges, and navigate some of the biggest financial decisions of their lives. The people sitting in those Assembly seats should care just as much as we do.
Get in the room with your candidates and support AMBA and the Legislative Affairs Committee as we continue to advocate for you locally, in Juneau, and in Washington, DC. Tickets are available now with bulk ticket discounts, and bring your young professionals (35 and under) for just $25. Sponsorships are also available for companies that want to support AMBA's ongoing advocacy work.
Let's pack The Nave on March 18th and show these candidates that Anchorage's mortgage and real estate industry is ready to be part of the conversation.
REGISTER NOW!
News From Last Week
Register now to get our AMBA Member Discount for Live CE with Knowledge Coop!
AMBA is excited to announce that we are sponsoring this year's Live CE at The Megan Room with Knowledge Coop on April 7th, 2026. AMBA members can also get a special discount code for 20% off your total registration. To access this code, log in to your member account and click DISCOUNT CODES to register at a discount!
Rates Briefly Crossed Below 6% — Then the Iran War Changed the Calculation
For a brief stretch last week, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.98%, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey — the first time rates have dipped below 6% since September 2022. That crossing was widely treated as a psychological milestone, one that economists and housing analysts said could bring sidelined buyers back to the market heading into the spring season. Then came the oil shock. After U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian targets beginning February 28th, Brent crude surged from roughly $70 to over $100 per barrel as Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a passage that carries approximately 20% of the world's oil supply. Mortgage rates moved back above 6% as Treasury yields climbed amid renewed inflation concerns tied to rising oil prices. As of Friday, the 30-year rate sat at approximately 6.13% according to Mortgage News Daily.
Alaska Impact: The whipsaw in rates matters for how we talk to borrowers right now. The good news is that Zillow estimates buyer purchasing power has increased by roughly $30,000 compared to a year ago, due to the cumulative decline from the 2025 peak. For Alaska borrowers, the message from your AMBA members is clear: don't try to time a day-to-day rate. If the home makes sense and the payment works, the long-term case for buying in Alaska remains solid. The Iran situation introduces real near-term volatility, but it doesn't change the underlying market fundamentals that make this state a strong long-term investment.
February Jobs Report Delivers a Jolt: Economy Sheds 92,000 Jobs
Friday's employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was worse than nearly anyone expected. The U.S. economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% — against economist expectations of a net gain of around 60,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate. The report also included downward revisions to prior months, making the fourth quarter of 2025 look considerably weaker in retrospect. Analysts cited several contributing factors, including a major healthcare worker strike, federal workforce reductions, and hiring slowdowns tied to tariff uncertainty. Average hourly earnings rose 3.8% year-over-year, the report's lone positive signal.
Alaska Impact: A weakening national labor market is generally a signal that points toward Fed rate cuts — which would be welcome for mortgage demand. But the complication is the Iran war's oil shock. The Federal Open Market Committee meets March 17–18, with the federal funds rate currently in the mid-3% range, and most analysts expect the Fed to hold despite the soft jobs data, citing the inflationary risk from elevated oil prices. For Alaska members, the March 11th CPI report is worth watching closely — it will be a key data point for where rates go from here. Alaska's own energy-production dynamic means rising oil prices are a double-edged reality for our state that is worth factoring into borrower conversations.
FHA Compliance Moves to the Front as CFPB Oversight Continues to Recede
As the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau continues operating at reduced enforcement capacity, servicers are increasingly turning to FHA, VA, and state rules for compliance direction, with FHA distressed loan rules expected to shape servicing priorities throughout 2026. Industry observers note that FHA delinquency rates have been trending higher relative to pre-pandemic levels, and the lack of clear CFPB enforcement has not meant a regulatory vacuum — rather, it has shifted scrutiny to agencies that operate with different timelines, different rules, and less predictability. State regulators in California, Massachusetts, and New York have also begun filling gaps, adding local registration requirements and foreclosure-related rules. The CFPB's proposed revision of Regulation X, which would roll back the last remaining pandemic-era servicing flexibility, remains pending without resolution.
Alaska Impact: Alaska members operating in the servicing space — or lenders whose portfolios carry FHA volume — should be reviewing their FHA distressed loan compliance processes now rather than waiting for enforcement signals. With the CFPB's playbook uncertain and federal agencies like FHA taking on more compliance weight, knowing your FHA obligations cold is simply good business in 2026. AMBA's Legislative Affairs Committee is monitoring regulatory developments at the federal level. Reach out if you'd like to connect with the LAC on specific compliance questions.
Welcome New Members!
AMBA welcomes all Alaska mortgage banking professionals to join our growing community. Membership provides access to industry advocacy, professional development opportunities, networking events, and regular market intelligence updates tailored specifically to Alaska's unique market conditions.
Welcome First Rate Financial as our new new Career Board Sponsor!
2025-2026 Membership Benefits Include:
- Voice in state legislative advocacy through our new Legislative Affairs Committee
- Monthly educational sessions and industry updates
- Professional networking opportunities with Alaska mortgage banking leaders
- Access to Alaska-specific market data and trends
- Discounted rates for industry events and conferences
Contact AMBA at (907) 727-1076 or [email protected] to learn about Regular, Affiliate, Non-Profit, and Individual membership options. Visit alaskamba.org for complete membership information and dues structure. Join us in advancing Alaska's mortgage banking industry!
